Title: Future Projections of Pneumonia Mortality Across Ages: A Global Perspective

Abstract: 

Pneumonia continues to be a major health issue worldwide, especially impacting those at-risk across various age categories. By incorporating comprehensive modeling techniques, this study addresses the pressing need for accurate global pneumonia mortality forecasting across age demographics to inform evidence-based interventions and policymaking. This study employs forecasting models, including Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average Models (ARIMA), Generalized Additive Models (GAM), Simple Linear Regression (SLR), Facebook's Prophet Model, and the n-sub-epidemic framework, to predict pneumonia mortality trends. Data from 1990 through 2019 were used for calibration, with predictive forecasts extending to 2030. The percent change in pneumonia deaths from 2020 to 2030 along with model uncertainty were assessed for all model forecasts. Global trends revealed a

consistent rise in pneumonia mortality among individuals aged ≥70 years, while those under 5 showed a decline. Among ages 50–69, mortality increased gradually. The n-sub-epidemic model predicted a decrease in mortality for ages 15–49 and 5–14, contrasting with statistical models showing increasing trends among ages 15–49. All models offer predictive capabilities, specifically the n-sub-epidemic models demonstrated consistent and reliable predictions. The consistency of forecasting trends across models validates the study's findings and indicates their adaptability to different epidemiological contexts.

Chair: Dr. Gerardo Chowell-Puente